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Daniel Narrows Against The Odds Sunday 31st August 2014

With Daniel Ricciardo narrowing the gap to both Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg after his win at Spa, the bookmakers have reacted. And it wasn’t just Dan’s win that sent his odds tumbling, it was the fact that Red Bull could almost match Mercedes’ pace at a low downforce circuit like Spa.

Think back to two weeks ago and Red Bull Racing boss Christian Horner was saying that the next time they were seriously going to be in the hunt for a win was at the tight, twisty Singapore Grand Prix. But with the win at Spa, it also means that they could still be in a position to challenge at the lowest of the low-drag circuits Monza.

Daniel’s back-to-back wins have seen his Championship odds at Paddy Power  slashed from 100-1 to 20-1. And not unsurprisingly, Nico Rosberg now has the edge over Lewis Hamilton at 8/13 compared to Lewis’s 11/8.

Though it’s great for the neutral fan to see guys like Daniel Ricciardo seizing his moment, the closer he comes to Rosberg and Hamilton’s title fight – with the threat of a 50-point bonanza in the final race – the more likely we’ll see Mercedes switch to safety mode and start to impose team orders.

Last Friday they said that they are prepared to let their drivers race “hard and fair”, so no clipping your rivals’ rear tyre to make a point. Which should make the tricky Turn 1 at Monza very interesting indeed.

When it comes to the odds for an individual race win at Monza, the bookmakers’ still have Lewis as favourite at 5/6 for the win, Rosberg at 6/4 and Ricciardo at 9-1. But lovers of the Scuderia can find Fernando Alonso at 33-1 and his former Ferrari team-mate Felipe Massa also at 33-1.

The two Williams drivers, Bottas (at 16-1) and Massa (33-1) have got a car that performs well on circuits with a high power demand, and those odds look very good for a top three placing. Though if you were thinking of having a punt, it might be worth waiting to see the long-run pace of cars on Friday afternoon. Monza is virtually a six-turn circuit and so drivers’ performance there is less about their skill and more about the set-up.

Bets we’d like to see Paddy Power create some odds for

  • Will Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton crash into each other before the end of the year?

  • What’s the likelihood that Bernie Ecclestone (free from his German bribery trial) will buy back control of F1 from the commercial rights holder, CVC Capital partners?

  • Will someone run out of fuel before the end of the season? Monza, flat out, is a gas guzzler…